Going Global with ESG Investing-GDP Growth for 2020-Pekin Hardy Strauss

Going Global with ESG Investing

By Matthew Blume, CFA, Pekin Hardy Strauss Wealth Management

Matthew Blume-Pekin Hardy Strauss-GreenMoneyOur mantra has always been to go wherever we believe there is value. We will take our SRI mandate to the far reaches of the Earth if that is where we are able to find attractive investment opportunities that meet the needs of our sustainably-minded investors. Now, more than ever, our focus has turned global, as we look for strong ESG performers that trade at attractive valuations, a task that has become exceedingly difficult in the domestic market. Emerging markets, despite their unique challenges for ESG investors, demand special attention due to their deep undervaluation relative to the U.S. stock market.

Famed investor Warren Buffett generated fantastic returns over the course of his life by following a strategy of making investments in deeply undervalued companies when nobody else was interested in them. Mr. Buffett’s strategy is not complicated, but it seems that many investors, including (and maybe especially) those interested in sustainability, have forgotten this simple concept. Indeed, the S&P 500 Index currently trades near its all-time high, at multiples that will likely make it difficult for investors to generate attractive returns over the coming decade. At the same time, interest in emerging market stocks appears almost non-existent and is worsening as the coronavirus pandemic continues to put downward pressure on those economies where fiscal support has been less forthcoming than in G20 economies.1 This divergence is exactly the type of opportunity our “go anywhere” investing strategy is designed to capture.

There is no doubt that emerging markets have historically presented an added challenge for investors focused on sustainability factors. However, the encouraging growth in ESG disclosure by emerging market companies and the ever-widening coverage of emerging market companies by ESG data providers has dramatically lowered this hurdle, giving sustainability-focused investors far more opportunities to invest in deeply undervalued companies in the Buffett fashion. We would even suggest that sustainable investors may stand to benefit more than investors who simply allocate to traditional emerging markets equities.

Our approach to investing in emerging markets is the same as it is in any other market: look for companies with strong ESG performance trading at attractive valuations. Set forth below are some of the key considerations that inform our current interest in emerging markets.

• GDP Growth
Although the rest of the world continues to generate faster economic growth than the United States, investors seem convinced that the United States is in much better shape than the rest of the world. We believe this consensus view is incorrect, as there is little to suggest that the United States has fewer problems than the rest of the world. Between 2018 and 2050, the working age population in the emerging markets is expected to increase by 135%, even while the working age population in the developed world is expected to decline by 7%.2 Population growth in emerging economies, along with productivity improvements which correlate to many of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, should lead to far better growth in emerging markets over the next thirty years relative to the United States and other industrialized countries.

[ See Real GDP Growth Infographic at top. Source ]

• Evolution of Emerging Markets
The world has changed considerably as a result of the growth of emerging markets over the past 20 years. Emerging markets represent a greater share of the global economy today, while the United States’ share of the global economy has decreased. Emerging market countries have become richer, and their middle-classes have increased commensurately; China and India are home to two of the top three largest middle-class populations in the world. At the same time, emerging market economies are evolving away from low cost, labor- and resource-intensive industries and towards technology, services, and consumer-driven industries. This evolution not only helps to make emerging markets more attractive to investors generally, but it also provides greater opportunity for sustainability-focused investors.

• Valuation Discrepancy
The valuation discrepancy between U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks is currently larger than at almost any time in recent history. As of September 10, 2020, the U.S. stock market is trading at a cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) multiple of 31.2x earnings.3 The only two times in history when the S&P 500 Index was more expensive by that measure were 1) the peak of the Dot-Com bubble in 2000 and 2) the stock market peak in 1929. Investors would be wise to remember how poor stock returns were subsequent to those valuation peaks. Emerging market stocks trade at a CAPE ratio of just 15.8x; put simply, emerging market stocks are currently trading at a 50% discount to their U.S. brethren.

Matthew Blume with Kurt Summers-former Chicago Treasurer
Matthew Blume with Kurt Summers, former Treasurer for the City of Chicago at the 2018 SRI Conference

• The U.S. Dollar is Overvalued
When the U.S. dollar appreciates relative to the currencies of other countries, the U.S. stock market tends to outperform the stock markets of other countries. Similarly, when the U.S. dollar depreciates versus the currencies of other countries, the U.S. stock market tends to underperform. We think several important fundamental factors should lead to a weaker dollar in the years ahead (e.g., fiscal and monetary stimulus, trade imbalances), and that dollar weakness should fuel earnings growth and share price appreciation in emerging markets.

• ESG Outperformance in Emerging Markets
Over the past 10 years, the MSCI EM ESG Leaders Index has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by more than 3.5% per annum while also experiencing less volatility and smaller drawdowns.4 This outperformance dwarfs that of the MSCI EAFE ESG Leaders Index vis-à-vis the MSCI EAFE Index (0.87% per annum), and in the U.S., the MSCI USA ESG Select Index has actually underperformed the MSCI USA Index by a small margin.5,6 This strongly suggests that ESG-focused investors can earn a material premium investing in emerging markets – one that can be elusive in developed markets.

We believe the opportunity on offer for ESG investors in emerging markets is clear. We recognize the unique challenges that emerging markets investing poses for SRI investors, but we also recognize that SRI investors who are willing to go against the grain stand to benefit greatly from deep undervaluation and an ESG premium. While countless ESG investors crowd into the same flashy U.S. technology stocks, paying multiples that all but guarantee poor forward returns, value conscious investors who are willing to do the more difficult work of understanding the ESG risks and opportunities of emerging market companies should be rewarded with attractive long-term performance in our view.

 

Article by Matthew Blume, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Director of ESG Research with Pekin Hardy Strauss Wealth Management.

Matthew is a portfolio manager of private client accounts at Pekin Hardy Strauss Wealth Management and manages the firm’s ESG research and shareholder advocacy efforts. Matthew works closely with clients to help them articulate their financial goals and constructs comprehensive financial plans to help them achieve those goals, all while ensuring that each client’s portfolio is aligned with his or her personal values and risk tolerance. As the firm’s Director of ESG Research, Matthew is responsible for understanding the ESG-related risks and opportunities faced by each potential investment that the firm considers. This information is key in the firm’s efforts to tailor client portfolios to their unique values. Matthew also leads the firm’s shareholder advocacy efforts, engaging with management teams of portfolio companies to encourage responsible and sustainable management of those companies. Matthew has become a respected voice in the SRI community, speaking at conferences and serving on expert panels around the country. He is an outspoken advocate for using business as a force for good and is highly active in the Chicago B Corp community. Prior to joining Pekin Hardy, Matthew worked as an investment advisor for Cornerstone Asset Management, and prior to that, as a systems engineer for a large government contractor. Matthew is a CFA Charterholder and is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Chicago. He is also a frequent contributor to Nasdaq.com, where he writes on matters of personal finance and investing.

Article Footnotes:
[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020

[2] Source: Oppenheimer, World Bank

[3] The cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio is a valuation measure that takes into account 10 years of earnings adjusted for inflation. If P/E ratios, profit margins, and inflation rates are mean reverting, and we believe that they are, this measure is a useful indicator of forward-looking equity returns. The lower the CAPE ratio, the more likely it is that 10-year forward returns will be attractive. The higher the CAPE ratio, the more likely it is that 10-year forward returns will be lower than historical returns.

[4] https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/c341baf6-e515-4015-af5e-c1d864cae53e

[5] https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/c8a8efd5-0bfb-44ae-9d5c-89e29fa8b9c6

[6] https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/180b72ea-8d96-471c-88c6-0c01fb682b76

This commentary is prepared by Pekin Hardy Strauss, Inc. (“Pekin Hardy”) for informational purposes only. Pekin Hardy Strauss, Inc. does business as Pekin Hardy Strauss Wealth Management, encompassing financial planning and separate account management services for individuals and families, and as Appleseed Capital, the firm’s institutionally-focused arm. The information contained herein is neither investment advice nor a legal opinion. The views expressed are those of the authors as of the date of publication of this report, and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources Pekin Hardy believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. There are no assurances that any predicted results will actually occur. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 Index measures an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping, among other factors. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an index that consists of indices in 24 emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Qatar, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

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